Our current Real Estate market continues to stymie even the most seasoned of sales veterans. I was chatting with one such Realtor just the other day. I asked him, with his 40 years of experience, what his thoughts were on our current market. His response was quite interesting in that he said he has never seen a market like this one. Yes, there was the collapse of 1989 and the several years of recovery. The market conditions at that time however were influenced by global economic issues and extremely high interest rates.

Now, our market is more challenged with the staggering amount of inventory that we see across all price ranges. A quick glance at the various communities below will provide a very clear picture of the supply and demand ratio. Across many housing categories, we have 7 - 10 months of supply of homes. The Sold/Month represent the absorption rate; and the active listings represent the total homes for sale. 

YORK REGION NOVEMBER SALES ACTIVITY - 2017

Municipality
Active Listings
Sold/Month
Average $ Month
Average $ Year
Aurora
330
56
$922,430
$1,095,509
East Gwillimbury
220
27
$726,037
$965,453
Georgina
267
74
$528,717
$649,039
King
175
27
$1,632,630
$1,587,612
Markham
1064
285
$906,736
$1,059,307
Newmarket
417
102
$824,585
$920,502
Richmond Hill
933
199
$948,453
$1,158,553
Vaughan
1104
245
$944,097
$1,086,411
Whitchurch
Stouffville
220
56
$923,248
$1,085,239


For perspective, at this time last year, we had about a 1 1/2 month supply of homes.

YORK REGION NOVEMBER SALES ACTIVITY - 2016

Municipality
Active Listings
Sold/Month
Average $ Month
Average $ Year
Aurora
195
125
$884,726
$955,361
East Gwillimbury
94
36
$864,253
$784,256
Georgina
204
108
$553,477
$518,338
King
93
43
$1,454,665
$1,285,910
Markham
662
432
$994,716
$965,436
Newmarket
286
134
$819,927
$775,617
Richmond Hill
479
338
$1,113,485
$1,090,288
Vaughan
597
388
$983,000
$941,956
Whitchurch Stouffville
127
75
$1,012,880
$966,182


As is evidenced in the charts, home prices have stabilized from this year's earlier price surge. The November to November average price  is actually down in most communities; and the average year over year remains higher. The reality is our yearly average is still artificially high due to the massive prices achieved in the first quarter. The good new is we have stabilized in my opinion. 

The only real factor that I can attribute to the lack of sales is that home buyers are determined to play a 'wait and see' game. Have prices hit bottom yet? A comparison of the charts above suggest that the buyers have been wise to sit on the sidelines these past several months. Year over year prices are down in most communities; and the annual average remains artificially high due to the massive price surge achieved in the first quarter. 

Economists and analysts cannot agree on where our market is going. Some have suggested a further price erosion of 5 - 10%; others are predicting that the GTA will have a similar bounce back to the Vancouver market. I look forward to carefully watching the December activity; and how we step into 2018.

In order to make an informed decision, your long term goals become of paramount importance. We are happy to sit and chat informally to help guide you with your decision making process. We are here as advisers and consultants and want the best for you. Please feel free to review our many BLOGS on this year's very fascinating market!

Enjoy this month's update and we wish all of you a safe and happy Holiday season.


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